Paul Boutin at Venturebeat recently wrote: “More than a third of Ugandans own cellphones. In some areas, ‘cellphones could outnumber light bulbs.’ Is that really true?”
Let’s do the math…
In 2007 only between 5% and 6% of Ugandans had electricity (demand is growing at roughly 6% per year). Meanwhile in 2007, .52% had landlines while mobile subscriptions stood at 13% (a number skewed by the fact that it’s common to have a several cellphone, all mostly pre-paid). Demand is much higher in the mobile space than in electricity although demand is obviously correlated. note: My using the word ’subscriptions’ is a bit of a misnomer as virtually all cellpone usage here is pre-paid. Here subscriber really reffers more to ‘people who have purchased a sim card’.
Fast-forward two and a half years and from an MTN lawyer I recently discovered that current mobile penetration in Uganda is an estimated 7 to 8 million users. MTN projects that by 2012 that number will nearly double. The population of Uganda is somwhere between 29 and 31 million people. Because of the skew (the commonality of mulitple cellphones and providers) it’s virtually impossible to know for sure but the 1/3 of the population number seems to be reasonably accurate. Meanwhile, while the grid is extending into more rural and less prosperous parts of the country (and people that can’t afford electricity even if it’s available). We know that city life in Uganda’s capital, Kampala, largely consists of ’slums’ with poor infrastructure and certainly little electricity (which is rather expensive because demand is so low). In this article from All Africa, Action Aid International suggests that over 1.5 million of Kampala’s 1.8 million are living in areas that would qualify as slums. We also know that roughly 90% of Ugandans live in rural areas that have even less infrastructure. But we also know a lot of those same people have multiple mobiles (often via hand-down or sharing with peers and family).
It stands to reason that in these areas mobiles might signifigantly outnumber light bulbs.
About the author: Jonathan Gosier is a software developer, writer and social entrepreneur. He currently lives in Kampala, Uganda where he incubates and invests in East African entrepreneurs as the CEO of Appfrica Labs. He's also a TED Fellow.
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Do Cellphones Outnumber Lightbulbs in Uganda?
Paul Boutin at Venturebeat recently wrote: “More than a third of Ugandans own cellphones. In some areas, ‘cellphones could outnumber light bulbs.’ Is that really true?”
Let’s do the math…
In 2007 only between 5% and 6% of Ugandans had electricity (demand is growing at roughly 6% per year). Meanwhile in 2007, .52% had landlines while mobile subscriptions stood at 13% (a number skewed by the fact that it’s common to have a several cellphone, all mostly pre-paid). Demand is much higher in the mobile space than in electricity although demand is obviously correlated. note: My using the word ’subscriptions’ is a bit of a misnomer as virtually all cellpone usage here is pre-paid. Here subscriber really reffers more to ‘people who have purchased a sim card’.
Fast-forward two and a half years and from an MTN lawyer I recently discovered that current mobile penetration in Uganda is an estimated 7 to 8 million users. MTN projects that by 2012 that number will nearly double. The population of Uganda is somwhere between 29 and 31 million people. Because of the skew (the commonality of mulitple cellphones and providers) it’s virtually impossible to know for sure but the 1/3 of the population number seems to be reasonably accurate. Meanwhile, while the grid is extending into more rural and less prosperous parts of the country (and people that can’t afford electricity even if it’s available). We know that city life in Uganda’s capital, Kampala, largely consists of ’slums’ with poor infrastructure and certainly little electricity (which is rather expensive because demand is so low). In this article from All Africa, Action Aid International suggests that over 1.5 million of Kampala’s 1.8 million are living in areas that would qualify as slums. We also know that roughly 90% of Ugandans live in rural areas that have even less infrastructure. But we also know a lot of those same people have multiple mobiles (often via hand-down or sharing with peers and family).
It stands to reason that in these areas mobiles might signifigantly outnumber light bulbs.